Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth
نویسنده
چکیده
Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macrovariables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but over-estimate the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Journal of Economic Literature classification: C53.
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